Strictly Come Dancing 2013: can maths predict the winner?

We use the power of numbers to work out who might make it to this year's final and which of the remaining five celebs could get their hands on the Strictly glitterball...


And then there were five…


This weekend’s Strictly Come Dancing saw us bid farewell to Hollyoaks star Ashley Taylor Dawson as our celebrity contestants were whittled down to the final five. 

The remaining waltzers and foxtrotters will face each other in the Strictly semi-finals. But with all the dancers having the potential to take home the glitterball – they’ve all had their fair share of both high scores and wobbly weeks – it seems as though there really is no front runner. It’s simply impossible to work out who’s got the moves to make it to the final… Or is it?

We’ve whipped out our calculators and decided to use MATHS to find out who the winner might be, adding together our five semi-finalist’s total scores over the course of the series then dividing by the number of dances. Here’s what we discovered:

Natalie Gumede

31 + 34 + 36 + 35 + 35 + 38 + 39 + 37 + 36 + 41 = 362

Average score per dance: 36.2

Abbey might have accumulated the most points so far, but, if maths has anything to do with it, Natalie Gumede should be in line for the Strictly Come Dancing crown. Natalie’s total score is still higher than Patrick, Susanna and Sophie’s on the overall leader board even though she didn’t dance in week seven. Chances are she’d be storming ahead of Abbey if she’d been able to perform that week, especially as the Corrie star has never – we repeat: never – had a score lower than 31. 

Abbey Clancy

32 + 30 + 28 + 35 + 35 + 34 + 36 + 37 + 32 + 40 + 40 = 379

Average score per dance: 34.45

As the only contestant to achieve that coveted 40 (Natalie and Patrick’s 41 is a result of their week 11 performance plus the Strictly swing-a-thon) Abbey is at the top of our overall leader board. Those perfect scores count for a lot, you know. If she can continue impressing the judges, it’ll be nigh on impossible to keep her out of the final. 

Susanna Reid

28 + 31 + 34 + 29 + 32 + 34 + 36 + 39 + 31 + 33 + 33 = 360

Average score per dance: 32.7

It feels as though Susanna and Patrick have had very different journeys during the series, but as it stands at the end of week 11, they have both racked up exactly the same average score. Susanna may have looked like a sure winner a couple of weeks ago (and her dedicated fan base could mean she will be – she’s been saved from the dreaded dance off two weeks in a row, despite being at the bottom of the leader board) but if you consider the numbers, it looks as though the BBC Breakfast presenter peaked in week eight, with that fiery Paso Doble. 

Patrick Robinson

28 + 27 + 27 + 33 + 28 + 34 + 37 + 35 + 32 + 38 + 41 = 360

Average score per dance: 32.7

Patrick, the competition’s only remaining male contestant, had more scores down in the 20s than any other semi-finalist, but he’s also seen more improvement than the rest of them. If the Casualty actor keeps upping his game, he might just be on course to reach the pinnacle of his dancing just in time for the final…

Sophie Ellis Bextor

28 + 36 + 31 + 35 + 30 + 28 + 32 + 34 + 31 + 36 + 38 =359

Average score per dance: 32.6

At the bottom of the leader board, it would seem unlikely for Sophie to make it out of this weekend’s semi-final but if you take another look at the numbers, it’s actually a close call between Susanna, Patrick and Sophie. Despite a couple of wobbly weeks, the Murder on the Dance Floor singer is only one point behind them and their average scores are virtually identical. Plus, unlike Susanna, she’s back to improving week on week. 

Strictly Come Dancing continues on Saturday at 6:40pm on BBC1