Oscars 2022 predictions: Who will win vs who should
Everything you need to know about who might walk away with a golden statuette tonight.
The Oscars are almost here, with Amy Schumer, Regina Hall and Wanda Sykes hosting tonight's 2022 ceremony in the US.
The full list of nominations was announced earlier this year, with Jane Campion's The Power of the Dog leading the pack with a whopping 12 nods, followed closely by space epic Dune, which has 10 under its belt. Kenneth Branagh's Belfast and Steven Spielberg's electrifying West Side Story remake both racked up seven.
It's a big year for the streamers, as Netflix, Amazon Prime Video, Apple TV+ and Disney+ all have horses in the race – but who will be walking home with the golden statuettes come Sunday night?
Here's who is predicted to win, plus our own picks for who should take home the prizes in all the major categories.
And remember, the 2022 Academy Awards air on Sky Cinema and NOW in the UK at 1am on Monday morning.
More like this
Best Picture
Who will win? The Power of the Dog. In what was once seen as a two-horse race between The Power of the Dog and Belfast, some pundits have recently predicted that Sian Heder's drama CODA could actually upset the apple cart and walk away with the golden statuette, especially after its victory at last weekend's PGA Awards. In truth though, Jane Campion's film – which is nominated for an impressive 12 awards in total – still seems the most likely winner, even if it's a more unpredictable race than last year.
Who should win? Licorice Pizza. There are a lot of excellent films up for the top prize this year – West Side Story and Dune are both terrific, for example, and no one could begrudge Campion's superb western if it does take home the big one. But in my view, none of the films can top the sheer brilliance of Paul Thomas Anderson's latest opus, a freewheeling, excellently-constructed period piece with two electrifying newcomer performances at its centre, and all manner of scattered pleasures throughout. A word too on Drive My Car, Ryusuke Hamaguchi's stunning three-hour meditation on communication and grief, which would be a refreshing, if unlikely winner.
Best Actor
Who will win? Will Smith. From very early on in the race, Smith has established himself as the firm favourite to take home this award for his turn in King Richard – already having won just about every major precursor including the BAFTA, Screen Actors Guild Award, Golden Globe and Critics' Choice. If he does win, it will be third time lucky in the category (following earlier nods for Ali and The Pursuit of Happyness) and he'll no doubt prove a popular winner. He turns in a typically likeable and charismatic performance as Richard Williams – a man who could have come across as more objectionable in a lesser actor's hands.
Who should win? Benedict Cumberbatch. There's not really one actor among the nominees that truly stands out from the crowd, but Cumberbatch gives a terrific performance against type as brutal rancher Phil Burbank in Jane Campion's The Power of the Dog, and would certainly be a worthy winner. It's by some distance the Sherlock star's best big screen role to date – there's a real menace to his portrayal of the bullying Phil, but also a repressed vulnerability that increasingly comes to the fore as the film reaches its brilliant climax.
Best Actress
Who will win? Jessica Chastain. This is certainly the most chaotic category to predict, with many of the precursors having chosen different winners – including a BAFTA honour for Joanna Scanlon, who isn't even in contention at the Oscars. Following wins at both the SAGs and the Critics' Choice Awards, however, Jessica Chastain has now just about established herself as the frontrunner and seems a good bet to win her first Oscar. Her turn as the title character in The Eyes of Tammy Faye is certainly in keeping with the kind of performances the Academy tends to enjoy – a big, flamboyant interpretation of a real-life figure.
Who should win? Kristen Stewart. This category is an interesting combination of big, flashy performances based on real people – à la Chastain and Nicole Kidman – and more grounded portrayals of fictional characters such as the turns from Olivia Colman and Penelope Cruz. Stewart's turn as Princess Diana fits somewhere between those two modes – sure, she's very much playing a real figure and adopts many of her mannerisms, but within the fairytale setting of Pablo Larrain's terrific film, her rather campy performance works a treat – and she'd be a deserving winner.
Best Supporting Actor
Who will win? Troy Kotsur. While CODA might end up falling just short of picking up Best Picture, its standout performer looks almost certain to be honoured at this stage. Kotsur already has the BAFTA, the SAG, and the Critics' Choice Award under his belt, and should he go on to win the Oscar as well it would make him the first deaf male actor to do so (interestingly, his CODA co-star Marlee Matlin won Best Actress for Children of a Lesser God in 1986).
Who should win? Kodi Smit-McPhee. In truth, my favourite male supporting performance of the year was Mike Faist's incredibly charismatic turn as Riff in West Side Story, but sadly he didn't even earn a nomination. Instead, I'd throw my weight behind Kodi Smit-McPhee, who delivers a terrifically understated turn as Peter Gordon, a sensitive, layered character whom he plays with real intelligence. His scenes with Cumberbatch, in particular, are expertly played – especially in the latter stages of the film as their relationship becomes more complex.
Best Supporting Actress
Who will win? Ariana DeBose. Much like the Best Actor race, this one seems to have already been settled – with DeBose winning all the major precursors for her role as Anita in West Side Story. This would make her the second person to win an Oscar for playing this character, following Rita Moreno in the 1961 original (funnily enough, Moreno was once considered to have an outside chance of a nomination herself this year, for her new role as Valentina in the same film).
Who should win? Ariana DeBose. It's hard to deny that DeBose would be the deserving winner in this category – she injects the character with such energy and charisma, especially during the tremendous America, the standout musical number in a film full of terrific song and dance moments. Following in Moreno's footsteps can't have been an easy feat, but DeBose proved she was more than up to the task.
Best Director
Who will win? Jane Campion. With the BAFTA, Golden Globe, and Critics' Choice Awards already wrapped up, it seems all but certain that Campion will add an Oscar to her impressive awards shelf. This would be something of a landmark moment for the awards – after only one female director winner (Kathryn Bigelow) in the first 92 years of the Oscars, this would mean a woman has now won in two consecutive years, following Chloe Zhao's triumph last year for Nomadland. And while it's depressing it's taken this long, it's a welcome sign of progress for the Academy.
Who should win? Steven Spielberg. To be honest, it would be easy to justify a win for just about any nominee in this category – including Campion – but for the way he reimagined a stone-cold classic like West Side Story in such a fresh, exhilarating way, it's hard to look past Spielberg as the most deserving winner. In what could have simply been an unambitious retread of a much-loved film, the veteran filmmaker injected so much life into this new version – with a multitude of stunning shots and sequences that are pretty much the definition of pure cinema and several musical numbers for the ages.
The 94th Academy Awards take place on Sunday 27th March 2022, and will air on Sky Cinema Oscars in the UK. Find out more about how to sign up for Sky TV here. If you’re looking for something to watch in the mean time, check out our TV Guide or visit our Movies hub for all the latest news.
The latest issue of Radio Times is on sale now – subscribe now to get each issue delivered to your door. For more from the biggest stars in TV, listen to the Radio Times podcast with Jane Garvey.
