Oscars 2023 predictions: Who will win vs who should

Beloved multiverse flick Everything Everywhere All at Once leads the pack with 11 nominations, and it looks well placed to translate many of those nods into wins, while other big hitters to look out for include The Banshees of Inisherin, Elvis and All Quiet on the Western Front – which dominated at last month's BAFTA Film Awards.

Many of the individual races look set to go right down to the wire, so read on to find out who is predicted to win, plus our own picks for who should take home the prizes in all the major categories.

And remember, the 2023 Academy Awards air on Sky Cinema and NOW in the UK at 1am on Monday morning (13th March).

Best Picture

Who will win? Everything Everywhere All at Once. For a long time, this has looked like the tightest Best Picture race in a number of years – with several contenders still in the frame to take home the top prize until relatively late in proceedings. But recently, the mindbending multiverse movie from directing duo Daniels has emerged as a clear frontrunner, and it would certainly be an exciting winner if it does come out on top – a genuinely original and ambitious film that doesn't fit into the traditional Best Picture winner stereotype.

Its closest competitor probably comes in the shape of the German war epic All Quiet on the Western Front, which won top honours at the BAFTAs but would be a less interesting victor here. It's an impeccably crafted film, no doubt, but it doesn't bring anything as fresh to the table as some of the other nominated titles.

Who should win? The Fabelmans. In truth, there are a number of films on the shortlist that could be considered worthy winners – including the aforementioned Everything Everywhere All at Once. Compelling arguments could also be made in favour of The Banshees of Inisherin, Tár and even Top Gun: Maverick, the sequel which defied just about everyone's expectations to become a critical and commercial smash.

But for me, the pick of the bunch is Steven Spielberg's semi-autobiographical The Fabelmans – a beautifully shot and fascinatingly insightful film that explores the great director's origins as a filmmaker and reflects on how his passion for moving pictures changed the way he viewed the world around him. It includes some terrific supporting performances and a couple of memorably moving scenes, with highlights including a shocking discovery that the lead character Sammy makes while editing some home video footage and the superb closing sequence featuring a delightful cameo.

Best Actor

Who will win? Austin Butler. Much of the coverage of this category has centred around Brendan Fraser and his acclaimed comeback performance in Darren Aronofsky's The Whale – but although the former The Mummy star is still the bookies' favourite, I have a hunch BAFTA winner Austin Butler will pip him to the post at the last minute. If there's one thing Oscar voters love more than a narrative, it's an accurate and flamboyant portrayal of a real-life icon – and Butler's turn as Elvis Presley was irrefutably the most show-stopping performance of the year.

Who should win? Paul Mescal. The chances of Mescal actually winning are so infinitesimal as to be basically non-existent, but his understated performance in Charlotte Wells's superb debut feature Aftersun is well worthy of the top prize. The Normal People star brings such extraordinary pathos to a character that can sometimes seem rather unknowable, while the dynamic he shares with daughter Sophie (terrific newcomer Frankie Corio) is very natural and incredibly moving. He even masters an Edinburgh accent!

Best Actress

Who will win? Michelle Yeoh. This category is pretty much a shootout between Yeoh and Cate Blanchett – and in truth, both could be considered worthwhile winners. Yeoh's turn in Everything Everywhere All at Once has pretty much everything – from incredible physical stunts to heartbreaking emotional breakthroughs, and the groundswell of support for the film should be enough to see her get her hands on the statuette. But don't rule out Blanchett, whose tour-de-force turn as the incredibly complex Lydia Tár could well see her win a third Oscar.

Who should win? Danielle Deadwyler. It's perhaps unconventional to list an actor who didn't actually make it onto the shortlist – but this was undoubtedly the most egregious snub of all when the nominations were unveiled in January. Deadwyler's magnificent portrayal of Mamie Till-Bradley in Chinonye Chukwu's poignant true-life drama was one of the very finest big-screen performances in recent memory, with the climactic trial scene – during which the camera is held on Deadwyler's face in close-up – enough in itself to see her a deserved winner.

Best Supporting Actor

Who will win? Ke Huy Quan. Similarly to Brendan Fraser, an award for the former Indiana Jones and the Temple of Doom and The Goonies star would cap off an incredible career comeback for Quan, who had spent more than 20 years out of the industry after quitting acting due to a lack of opportunities for Asian American actors. That narrative in itself would make him a great winner – and his performance in Everything Everywhere All at Once is well worth the acclaim, with a couple of line deliveries in particular destined to live on for some time.

Who should win? Barry Keoghan. The fact that two actors from Banshees of Inisherin are both nominated in this category – Keoghan and Brendan Gleeson – could split the vote and dent the young Irish actor's chances, but his was arguably the standout turn in a film full of tremendous performances. Keoghan brought great emotional depth to a character that could have been little more than a caricature in lesser hands, and one affecting scene he shares with Kerry Condon towards the end of the film is a particularly fine display of acting.

Best Supporting Actress

Who will win? Angela Bassett. Perhaps the most unpredictable of all the major categories – with Bassett, Jamie Lee Curtis and Kerry Condon all having won at various pre-cursor events. But Bassett's performance as Queen Ramonda in Black Panther: Wakanda Forever can currently be counted as the slight favourite, and if she does win she'll become the first actor to be awarded for a performance in an MCU movie.

Who should win? Kerry Condon. Condon's performance as Siobhán Súilleabháin perhaps isn't the showiest – but as the voice of reason in Martin McDonagh's Banshees of Inisherin, she delivers a nuanced, grounded and at times heartbreaking performances that brilliantly offsets the other terrific actors alongside her. The relationship between her character and her brother – Colin Farrell's Padraig – is especially poignant, and the pair make their dynamic incredibly believable.

Best Director

Who will win? Daniels. This is probably one of the most nailed-on of the major categories – and it would be seen as a major shock if Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert were usurped by any of the other contenders. There can be no doubt that the directing pair brought a great degree of visual inventiveness to their approach to Everything Everywhere All at Once – and their enjoyably showy style seems sure to play well with Academy voters.

Who should win? Todd Field. After more than a decade out of the industry, Field returned with the fascinating character study Tár – which is impeccably directed from beginning to end. His command of the performances and the subtle switches in tone as the title character's mental state begins to unravel are expertly done, and the film has a nightmare-like feel that doesn't overtly draw attention to itself.

The 95th Academy Awards take place on Sunday 12th March. Check out more of our Film coverage or visit our TV Guide and Streaming Guide to find out what's on.

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