The Radio Times logo

Can maths predict the winner of Strictly Come Dancing 2015?

According to addition and division, Helen George is set to win the glitterball trophy, while Katie and Anton will be the next couple to leave the dance floor logo
Published: Monday, 30th November 2015 at 4:20 pm

Next Saturday sees our remaining six celebrities go head to head in the Strictly Come Dancing quarter-finals. It's time sequins got serious. 


The standard of dancing this year is arguably higher than ever, but with each of the remaining dancers having experienced both high scores and wobbly weeks, it's impossible to pick a front runner... or is it?

After former bookies' favourite Peter Andre left the competition at the weekend, we whipped out our trusty calculators to try and use the power of maths to find out who the winner might be. Which surviving celebrity has the highest average score – and are they on their way to a glittering Strictly victory?

WINNER: Helen George

29+29+32+32+35+34+31+34+34+39 = 329 (336 including Quickstep-a-thon)

Average score per dance (excluding Quickstep-a-thon points) = 32.9

According to her series performance, Call the Midwife star Helen George is set to get her hands on the coveted Glitterball Trophy in the series' Grand Final later this year. The smiley star, who is paired with pro Aljaz, has the highest average score, at a very respectable 32.9, and has bagged the most points so far this year. In fact, she hasn’t scored lower than 31 since week one, and she's never scored lower than 29. Fab-u-lous. 

RUNNER-UP: Jay McGuiness 

27+31+37+25+33+34+34+30+36+38 = 325 (328 including Quickstep-a-thon)

Average score per dance = 32.5

Since that jaw-droppingly good week three Jive, Jay has been the bookies' favourite to win series 13. And we'd bet our fake tan tokens that'll he'll bag a place in the Grand Final. With an average score of 32.5, he's currently a close second to Helen and he's yet to find himself anywhere near the dreaded dance-off.

Jay's Strictly stint has been a little up and down, with lows of 25, but everyone knows fans love a journey. And I think it's fair to say, with his nervous, understated charm, that he's already won a place in the nation's hearts. 

RUNNER-UP: Georgia May Foote 

27+25+27+31+31+35+35+39+38+33 = 321 (327 including Quickstep-a-thon)

Average score per dance = 32.1

Former Corrie star Georgia May Foote is guaranteed to be a runner-up, if our sums are anything to go by.

The "pocket rocket" is going from strength to strength after a conservative start, scoring nothing lower than an 8 since week five and topping the leaderboard in weeks six, eight and nine. She also jointly holds the record for the series' highest score with Helen George. If she's not in the final, we'll eat our sequin-covered hats. 

FINALIST: Kellie Bright 

27+27+32+32+35+28+32+33+37+34 = 317 (319 including Quickstep-a-thon)

Average score per dance = 31.7

Kellie Bright might have found herself in the dreaded dance-off for the second time this week, but statistically speaking the EastEnder should fill the final place in the Strictly final.

She's been a consistently strong scorer all the way through, starting at 27 in week one and growing in confidence and skill since then. The judges are full of praise for her spins and flicks, but she's yet to score higher than 37. Considering the numbers alone, she'll come in at a very respectable fourth. 


27+27+29+27+32+29+34+32+37+31 = 305 (309 including Quickstep-a-thon)

Average score per dance = 30.5

Countryfile presenter Anita Rani has surprised her fans by stepping out of wellies and transforming into a dancing queen. She started the competition with poor odds of 25/1 to win, the same as bookies gave Jeremy Vine and Carol Kirkwood, but she's a real contender as we approach that all-important final.

She's got a solid average score of 30.5, and has impressed in recent weeks with scores in the mid to high thirties. Plus, unlike Kellie, she's yet to find herself in the dreaded dance-off. She'll certainly make it to the semi-finals. 


26+28+20+33+21+21+26+31+35+32 = 273 (278 including Quickstep-a-thon)

Average score per dance = 27.3

Katie Derham has the lowest average score of the remaining celebrities. In fact, she's bagged more scores in the 20s than she has in the 30s. But improvement counts for a lot, and she turned those 20s and 21s into a 37 in week 10.

If she can continue to go from strength to strength she might make it to the semi-final, but if we're talking numbers alone (and we are, that is the point of this article, after all...) she'll be hanging up her dancing shoes in next Sunday's results show. 

DISCLAIMER: Maths might not be all it's cracked up to be. Interestingly, Peter Andre's accumulated score was 310 and his average score per dance 30.9, higher than both Katie and Anita who remain in the competition. 


Strictly Come Dancing continues on Saturday at 7:00pm on BBC1


Sponsored content