Oscar 2026 predictions: Which films will actually win at the 2026 Oscars – and why?

Oftentimes when we approach the Oscars, many of the major prizes already look like foregone conclusions ahead of time, but – for the most part – that's not the case this time around.

With the exception of best actress, which looks more or less sewn up for Hamnet's Jessie Buckley, most of the main categories still appear to be up for grabs, with some very tight races for the likes of best actor and best supporting actress.

But who will actually end up taking home the golden statuettes when all is said and done on Sunday evening? We've taken a look at the major categories below, assessing the various runners and riders and delivering our verdict on who seems most likely to prevail.

Read on for our Oscars 2026 predictions.

What will win and should win best picture?

In recent years, with an entire industry of obsessives and prognosticators calculating every single outcome at every step of the six-to-nine-month awards season, the Oscars best-picture race has often suffered from fatigue long before its finale in February/March.

Some years, thankfully, a late surprise pops in to reverse a seeming foregone conclusion: Anora, CODA and Parasite are all recent examples of films whose wins were set in stone almost overnight, during sudden groundswells with just weeks of voting to go. And nine years ago, Moonlight famously mounted its grand upset on the night itself.

But this year, One Battle After Another has – surely to the irritation of even its most ardent fans – found itself comfortably in the position previously held by Oppenheimer, Everything Everywhere All at Once, Nomadland and The Shape of Water: a nigh-on unstoppable steamroller. Until now.

Two weeks before the biggest night on America’s film calendar, Sinners pulled a couple of last-minute surprises at the Actor (formerly SAG) Awards and finally forced a little drag onto One Battle After Another’s runaway campaign – and that could be enough for a full-on overtake.

The critical reception to One Battle After Another upon its September premiere was rapturous – and has remained so, even weathering what might, for lesser films, have become insurmountable online squabbles about its political outlook and its representation of Black women.

But in addition to being very good, the $130m+ production marks the biggest film yet from respected auteur Paul Thomas Anderson, whose 11 other nominations for writing, directing and producing have spanned modern classics Boogie Nights, Magnolia, There Will Be Blood and Phantom Thread, as well as Inherent Vice and Licorice Pizza. (He missed out on a personal nomination for 2012’s The Master, which still scored three acting nods.) Having never won, Anderson is now in a position recently occupied by Oppenheimer’s Christopher Nolan: a popular titan of the medium simply awaiting his crown.

But One Battle’s 13 nominations – which would be headline news in a different year –were overshadowed on Oscar nominations morning by Sinners, which broke records with its 16 nods.

The two films, both produced by Warner Bros, share some similarities: these are fleet-footed but serious-minded blockbusters that switch between deft, blood-pumping action sequences and quieter, more affecting dramatic scenes, all in service of something charged with both political meaning and personal feeling, not least around race and Blackness in America, and the insidious, often violent maintenance of a white-supremacist status quo.

So, the films are both accomplished, but more to the point they are timely – and they explore their themes in popular, accessible styles, which certainly make them appealing for Academy voters looking to show the vitality of their industry.

It’s these vital qualities, and the overdue narratives that attend both Anderson – as a beloved veteran – and Coogler – who could become, 98 years in, the first African-American person to win an Oscar for directing – that have kept both films at the top of the pile where early favourites Hamnet (eight nominations, including best picture and director) and Frankenstein (nine, including best picture) have stumbled in the face of relative apathy.

And despite an impressive nine nominations apiece for fellow best picture/director nominees Sentimental Value and Marty Supreme, neither film has felt “big” enough to touch the duelling frontrunners; the Academy awarded an indie last year, with Anora – perhaps it’s time to go big again.

Of these two robust multiplex pictures, One Battle has enjoyed dominance all season and still sits as the likely statistical frontrunner following its steady sweep of so-called “precursor” awards. Its wins at Hollywood’s Directors and Producers guilds show its popularity among the US industry, while its strong showing at the BAFTAs (where it even beat homegrown favourite Hamnet to best film) indicate broad support among the American Academy’s international voters.

But actors make up more than one-eighth of Oscar voters, and many of those are also in the Screen Actors Guild, which awarded Sinners its top prize (best cast, beating One Battle’s ensemble) and, possibly more tellingly, gave Michael B Jordan a surprise best-actor win over category favourite Timothée Chalamet.

This might not all translate to Oscar victory – just ask previous best-cast winners Hidden Figures and The Trial of the Chicago 7 – but on the other hand, the BAFTA and Producers Guild awards have themselves proved patchy indicators of Oscar’s eventual best picture. Meanwhile, four out of the last ten years have shown eventual splits between picture and director – including the infamous Moonlight/La La Land ceremony, early in President Trump’s last term of office.

Though Sinners still looks unfortunately likely to notch up an historical number of losses (it needs to win six Oscars to avoid that fate), its hopes of taking best picture glory even while Anderson enjoys his directing gong suddenly look stronger than ever. – Calum Baker

Our predicted winner: Sinners

Who will win and should win best actress?

Despite some truly astonishing snubs (how this won’t be Amanda Seyfried’s year is criminal), the best actress category is arguably the most stacked of this year’s Oscars cycle. From grieving mothers and troubled eldest daughters to potential aliens, the category is brimming with power.

Even so, it seems that there is one clear frontrunner: Hamnet’s Jessie Buckley. Now a two-time nominee following her nod for 2021 drama The Lost Daughter, the Irish actress has received enormous acclaim for her role as Agnes, William Shakespeare’s wife, in Chloé Zhao’s adaptation of Maggie O’Farrell’s novel.

Emotionally raw and completely devastating, Buckley’s rich performance as a woman living through unimaginable tragedy is exactly the kind the Academy favours. Already the recipient of all the major awards preceding Oscars night – the Golden Globe, Critics’ Choice, BAFTA and Actor Award – history dictates that Buckley will almost certainly win, with no lead actress ever having failed to take home an Oscar after winning all four.

Still, there could be a glimmer of hope left for Rose Byrne. Earning her first ever nomination in her versatile, three decade-long career, Byrne is at her very best in If I Had Legs I’d Kick You, where she plays Linda, a woman on the verge of a nervous breakdown under the pressure of raising an unwell daughter with an absent husband and tumultuous job.

Byrne’s anxiety is palpable across the 113 minutes, filmed predominantly with claustrophobic close-ups that allow the audience to capture the complete emotional texture of its protagonist. Byrne is ferocious and sympathetic – folding in threads of humour with her strong comedic chops. Should Buckley somehow manage to stumble on the big night, it’s probable that Byrne will be next in line, especially considering her Golden Globe win earlier this season.

And then there’s the return of Emma Stone, whose near-annual nominations seem inevitable at this point. This year marks Stone’s fifth nod – and it’s for one of her most layered roles to date. In Bugonia, she is Michelle Fuller, a pharmaceutical CEO who may or may not be from outer space. There are several tiers to Stone’s fascinating performance, all better understood upon second viewing. A win for Stone, however, seems unlikely, at least partly due to her relatively quiet campaign. However, with two Oscars already under her belt, Stone may not be that determined for another win.

Kate Hudson has also found herself a spot on the list for her charismatic yet tragic portrayal of Claire Cartwright in Craig Brewer’s Song Sung Blue. Though Hudson was praised as the standout of the musical drama, her nomination was the most unexpected of the season – with the somewhat rogue selection prompting much social media discussion – and many arguing that Amanda Seyfreid’s mesmerising performance in The Testament of Ann Lee, Jennifer Lawrence’s feverish turn in Die My Love or Chase Infiniti’s debut in best picture favourite One Battle After Another were equally, if not more, deserving. Regardless, it’s Hudson who has cemented her spot in the line-up – even though a win seems only a minor possibility.

Finally, there’s Renate Reinsve – whose nomination was probably never in any doubt. Reinsve’s delicate, sensitive and completely captivating performance as Nora Borg in Sentimental Value is something to admire, exploring familial complexities and infused with remarkable realism: with a particular scene between Reinsve and Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas one of the year’s most touching moments. Though a Reinsve win may be improbable, with the Academy often favouring louder voices over precise, tender performances, her turn will almost certainly be remembered long after this season, regardless of the outcome. – Chezelle Bingham

Our predicted winner: Jessie Buckley (Hamnet)

Who will win and should win best actor?

It was supposed to be plain sailing. Exactly 12 months ago, any soreness Timothée Chalamet would have felt after losing a best actor Oscar to Adrien Brody would have been softened by commentators declaring that “his time will come”. And it looked like being soon, too.

The release of exhilarating ping-pong drama Marty Supreme in December last year took acclaim for the 30-year-old actor to new heights – and Critics’ Choice and Golden Globe awards followed. Then, the announcement of his third Oscar nomination in January saw him become the youngest individual to receive three best actor nominations since Marlon Brando in 1953. Put simply: even alongside Leonardo DiCaprio, momentum has always been with Chalamet and his coronation has seemed one of the safest bets of this year’s Oscars race.

That is, until the last two weeks. Fellow nominees Ethan Hawke and Brazilian critical darling Wagner Moura have rarely threatened to steal Chalamet’s thunder (despite Moura winning a Golden Globe), but Sinners’ Michael B Jordan has emerged from the shadows to become a genuine contender.

The BAFTA best actor prize went to Robert Aramayo for Scotland-set drama I Swear, which is perhaps a case of a homegrown win that will have little impact on the Oscar race, but since then there has been a groundswell of support for Sinners. So much so, last week the vampire horror drama swept the Actor Awards and Jordan edged Chalamet to make things dicey for prognosticators and pundits.

Jordan’s performance as Smoke and Stack, two enterprising twin brothers in 1930s Mississippi, is central to the appeal of Ryan Coogler’s film, and an Oscar win would make him the first actor since Lee Marvin in 1965’s Cat Ballou to be recognised for two performances in one film. Notably, if Chalamet were to prevail, though, he would also become the first best actor winner in 22 years to win without having a BAFTA and Actor Award on the shelf in advance – as this year's best supporting actor frontrunner Sean Penn did so in 2004.

As for Leonardo DiCaprio, despite the evident love for his film One Battle After Another, it’s possible that voters have seemingly found his performance to be too comedic to compete with the field. One need not be Barry Norman to see that for The Academy, anguish is often currency. In that regard, Chalamet’s ping-pong hustler Marty is perhaps a little light, although his spectacular performance is also showy in a way that wouldn’t look out of place alongside recent winners, not least in a tearful final scene that neatly recalls the ending of Chalamet's breakthrough film, Call Me by Your Name.

So, as Sunday night at LA’s Dolby Theatre approaches, best actor is quietly looking ever less certain. Or, in table tennis terms: Marty is still serving for the match, but the scoreline is a lot closer than he’d like. – Max Copeman

Our predicted winner: Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme)

Who will win and should win best supporting actor?

Of the four acting categories at this year's Oscars, supporting actor is the only one made up entirely of nominees whose performances come in films included in the best picture line-up. The closely matched selection comprises two stars from Paul Thomas Anderson's One Battle After Another and one each from Sinners, Sentimental Value and Frankenstein – with the frontrunner in the race having switched multiple times over this long awards season.

At time of writing, two-time best actor winner Sean Penn has emerged as the favourite for his turn as heinous villain Colonel Lockjaw in One Battle After Another. Back-to-back victories at two of the most important precursor ceremonies – the BAFTA Film Awards and the Actor Awards – alongside the generally strong performance of the film across the board, suggest he'll be a tough man to beat, and it's easy to make a case that he'd be a deserving winner.

In Lockjaw, Penn expertly embodies one of the most odious antagonists put to the screen in years, delivering a twitchy, deeply disturbing physical performance that viscerally captures the character's creepy, pathetic nature as well as both his insatiable lust and deep-rooted insecurity. He's a character who would certainly fit in with a handful of previous winners – joining other chilling villains like Javier Bardem's Anton Chigurh (No Country for Old Men) and Heath Ledger's Joker (The Dark Knight) as memorable victors in this category.

For a long while, it looked like Penn's biggest competition may come from his One Battle cast mate Benicio del Toro, who plays an altogether more sympathetic character in karate teacher turned radical community leader Sensei Sergio St Carlos. Del Toro enjoyed strong results across various critics circle awards, but has failed to muster a major win at any of the more telling precursor shows – and it now looks a long shot that he'll win the same prize he won 25 years ago for Steven Soderbergh's Traffic.

Instead, if anyone is to unseat Penn as the favourite at this stage, it looks like being Stellan Skarsgård for his turn as film director Gustav Borg in Sentimental Value. Of all the nominees, he – along with Jacob Elordi in Frankenstein – is the most likely to be found guilty of category fraud, with his role very much registering as a leading one to most viewers. But such a charge didn't stop Kieran Culkin from taking this prize last year, and Skarsgård – who already has the Golden Globe to his name – would be a popular choice: a veteran actor who's worked across both auteur and blockbuster cinema for decades finally getting his due for one of his most rich and layered performances.

As for Elordi, a win at the Critics Choice awards back in early January seemed to put him very much in the running, but he's failed to build on that momentum. And though his impressively understated and unexpectedly tender performance as The Creature – a character played by more actors than just about any in cinema history – has been widely heralded, it seems he's not really in the race for now. The way his career is going, it seems likely his time will come in the not-too-distant future.

Which leaves us with Delroy Lindo. The veteran London-born actor had been considered something of a surprise nomination, not because his terrific, tragic turn as Delta Slim in Sinners was in any way undeserving, but because he'd been left off many of the other nominations lists. But Lindo is another consistently strong performer who seems overdue an Oscar, and though he still seems an outside bet at this stage, few would deny that his charismatic, soulful portrayal of the ageing harmonica player would be a brilliant choice of winner.

And if this awards season has taught us anything, it's rule out Sinners at your peril: there's a lot of passionate support behind the film, and that could very well help sweep Lindo to victory. – Patrick Cremona

Our predicted winner: Sean Penn (One Battle After Another)

Who will win and should win best supporting actress?

Of all the awards at this year's Oscars, the race for best supporting actress is perhaps the one worth staying up for.

This year's nominees have been selected from five of the very best films of 2025, including two nods in the horror genre for Sinners and Weapons, two from BAFTA-winning Sentimental Value and one from One Battle After Another, which has already scooped plenty of trophies elsewhere.

As it stands, Sinners' Wunmi Mosaku seems to be the frontrunner after taking home the BAFTA, but Golden Globe and Critics' Choice prizes went to Teyana Taylor and Amy Madigan respectively – who pose the biggest threat to the British actress.

While the ball could be in anyone's court, past voting patterns show the BAFTA, Critics' Choice and Golden Globes best supporting actress winners have only been split this way eight times before – with the BAFTA winner going on to win the Oscar in the most recent case.

In 2021, Jodie Foster won the Golden Globe for The Mauritanian, Maria Bakalova won the Critics' Choice for Borat Subsequent Moviefilm and Youn Yuh-jung won the BAFTA for Minari. And who won the Oscar then? Youn Yuh-jung.

Mosaku faces strong competition, though, with Teyana Taylor once a frontrunner in the category after her Golden Globes win. Despite only appearing in the first half hour of the film, her performance as the fearless Perfidia Beverly Hills commanded the attention of cinemagoers and voting bodies.

Fellow contenders include stars of Norwegian family drama Sentimental Value in Elle Fanning and Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, who were safe bets for nominations but stand slim chances of winning.

That leaves Amy Madigan, whose inclusion for her portrayal of Aunt Gladys in Weapons was something of a surprise nomination, albeit a welcome one among critics and cinephiles. Audiences had seen the Academy embrace horror last year, with Demi Moore nominated for best actress after starring in body-horror The Substance, but Weapons had largely been shut out of mainstream awards chatter – which positions Madigan as a dark horse.

With Oscar night drawing near, the statuette could be anyone's. – Katelyn Mensah

Our predicted winner: Wunmi Mosaku (Sinners)

Who will win and should win best director?

This year’s array of best director candidates for the Academy Award includes a trio making their category debut, a former winner, and a four-time nominee who must be favourite.

At the end of 2025, you might have expected Guillermo del Toro (Frankenstein) or Yorgos Lanthimos (Bugonia) to be in the final five. However, Josh Safdie moved into contention following the December release of Marty Supreme and the Oscar buzz around Timothée Chalamet’s dazzling performance as a charismatic hustler out to achieve greatness. It’s Safdie’s first nomination in any category and the first film made solo since 2008 and the 2024 split with co-directing sibling Benny.

Joachim Trier received a screenplay nomination for The Worst Person in the World (2021), but his nod for Sentimental Value is his first for directing. The story of a reunion between two sisters and their estranged film-maker father (played by Swedish veteran Stellan Skarsgård) has garnered four acting nominations, with only Skarsgård in the shake-up for a statuette. Trier will likely miss out, although the film has a chance of copping the Academy Award for best international feature, and is available on Mubi now.

A winner at the 2021 Oscars for Nomadland, Chloé Zhao became only the second woman to receive the Academy Award after Kathryn Bigelow broke that particular glass ceiling for The Hurt Locker in 2010. The Chinese film-maker’s second nomination as director is for Hamnet, the adaptation of Maggie O’Farrell’s novel about the fallout from the tragic death of Shakespeare’s son, for which both women are nominated in the best adapted screenplay category. However, Hamnet’s chances of success lie with Irish actress Jessie Buckley, whose performance as Will’s grieving wife Agnes seems destined for Oscar glory.

Previously nominated as a producer (Judas and the Black Messiah) and a songwriter (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever), Ryan Coogler (Creed) gets his first director nomination for hit horror flick Sinners. Only the seventh Black director to be nominated after John Singleton for Boyz n the Hood in 1992, who was then followed by Lee Daniels (Precious), Steve McQueen (12 Years a Slave), Barry Jenkins (Moonlight), Jordan Peele (Get Out) and Spike Lee (BlacKkKlansman), Coogler is the second favourite. However, Sinners has a record 16 Oscar nominations and wins likely elsewhere, including Coogler for his genre-blending original screenplay about twin brothers confronting racism and vampirism in 1930s Mississippi.

And the winner will be... Paul Thomas Anderson for black comedy thriller One Battle After Another, the film-maker’s fourth Oscar nomination as director after There Will Be Blood, Phantom Thread and Licorice Pizza and his 14th in total, but with no wins. That is sure to change with Anderson also up for best film and his adapted screenplay about a befuddled ex-revolutionary (Leonardo DiCaprio) on the run from his military nemesis (a superb Sean Penn). With all the main awards bodies (Golden Globes, Directors Guild and, most recently, BAFTA) all voting for Anderson, the indications are that one of the finest film-makers of his generation will be celebrating on 15 March. – Jeremy Aspinall

Our predicted winner: Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another)

The 98th Academy Awards will take place on Sunday 15 March.

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