Can you predict the Eurovision winner using streaming?

Sweden's sitting pretty in poll position but is the tune that's played to death online a guaranteed Song Contest winner?

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If you wanted to know who’d win the football there was a time when you’d just call Paul (the octopus) but predicting who’ll win the Eurovision Song Contest is a tricky business.

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It doesn’t mean people don’t try to do it though: take Spotify for example.

The streaming service says Sweden – one of 6 acts we’ve predicted could claim the crown – should come out on top in tonight’s Eurovision spectacular because Heroes, sung by Måns Zelmerlöw, has been streamed more frequently via Spotify than any other entry.

They created a ranked list based on the number of times each Eurovision track has been played, excluding results from the artists’ home countries. Sweden narrowly pipped Australia to the post, while Estonia, Spain and Belgium rounded out the top five.

The list is slightly at odds with bookies’ predictions for tonight’s Grand Final though. They agree that Sweden is the firm favourite for the crown but Russia is ranked a strong second by betting firms across the continent.

And, to make things even more interesting, Russian entry A Million Voices – performed beautifully by Polina Gagorina during the first semi-final on Tuesday night – is currently the most played track from the official Eurovision Song Contest 2015 album on iTunes.

It doesn’t seem as though The United Kingdom will fare particularly well among tonight’s pack with Spotify tipping Electro Velvet to place 19th based on the streaming count. The bookies are a little more optimistic, placing the UK entry in 15th, just behind Georgia’s ‘Warrior’ and ahead of Greece’s ‘Golden Boy’.

Nobody can predict how things will turn out on the night though. Just last year the same Spotify ranking suggested Denmark’s Basim and his Cliché Love Song would charm Europe and keep the contest in Copenhagen.

The Bruno Mars sound-alike wasn’t quite as popular with the voters though, getting just 74 points and taking 9th place in the contest.

And as for the winner, Austria’s Conchita? Streaming tallies suggested the best Miss Wurst could expect was a solid 8th position.

So you see, nothing’s guaranteed when it comes to Eurovision – other than the fact that the winner takes it all.

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The 60th Eurovision Song Contest will take place on Saturday May 23rd in Vienna, Austria and will be broadcast live on BBC1 and BBC1 HD, with commentary by Graham Norton. It will also be broadcast live on Radio 2 with commentary from Ken Bruce.


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