This ought to be a cracker, with two unreliable teams full of superstars who could suddenly do something brilliant or awful. Portugal were unlucky to lose to Germany, but lucky to emerge victorious from a crazy ding-dong match against Denmark. The Netherlands threw it away against Denmark but were then not too far from sneaking a draw against Germany, despite being completely outclassed for 90% of the game.
It'll come down to whether Dutch coach Bert van Marwijk can finally organise his potentially brilliant but, so far, not-brilliant-at-all attackers: Robin van Persie, Wesley Sneijder, Arjen Robben, Ibrahim Afellay and Klaas-Jan Huntelaar. If whichever four of those are picked can gel, the (normally) solid Portugal back line is in for a rough night.
OH NO, CRISTIANO: Portugal winger Cristiano Ronaldo was meant to step up at Euro 2012, having disappointed at previous international tournaments - but against Denmark he nearly lost the game single-handed, missing a string of sitters at one end and resolutely refusing to track back to defend at the other. If he leaves Fabio Coentrao all on his own against Robben and Sneijder, Portugal might die.
GROUP MATHS: It's a bit complex. The Dutch have 0 points so they clearly need to win. They also have to hope Denmark lose to Germany so they can join the Danes on 3 points. At this point you might think: ah, but the Netherlands lost their game against Denmark, so the Danes would still be through. You'd be wrong about that because with Portugal also on 3 points the tie would be settled by the three tied teams' goal difference, then goals scored, but with matches involving Germany discounted. What we think this boils down to is that Holland have to win by two goals, but don't quote us on that. Portugal have to match Denmark's result, but working out what happens if Portugal and Denmark both win - putting them and Germany all on 6 - is beyond us. We think Germany are probably in trouble (because the Portugal 3-2 Denmark result boosts both teams' goals scored) but definitely don't quote us on that.
PREDICTION: The Dutch have to sort it out sooner or later, don't they? Not necessarily. 2-2.