|
The stats back Russia, but who gets Terry Wogan's vote? Tim Moore finds out…
"I had a feeling for the Russian entry: the oil and the gas, Putin turning nasty and everybody slightly quaking in their boots," says Wogan, when asked to predict this year's winner on political and diplomatic criteria alone, putting aside musical judgements.
And the stats back him up. An analysis of voting patterns over the past ten years makes Russia clear favourite, followed by Ukraine, Bulgaria, Hungary and Romania.
Russia's entry, Believe, sung by Dima Bilan, is also in English, language of victory all but once in the past decade.
But like any punter, Wogan is hedging his bets - he thinks Russia may not pull it off, as only one solo male has won in the past 20 years.
Also scoring heavily in the stats is Sweden, and asked for his favourite song, he chooses their entry, Hero, sung by Charlotte Perrelli, as the winner (she also won in 1999). "Though bear in mind my record is appalling," he says. "In 37 years I have
never picked the winner once."
Who votes for whom?
Radio Times analyses recent voting patterns in the Eurovision Song Contest.
Viking empire
The Scandinavians rarely fail to give one of their neighbours douze points, and they helped Finland to win in 2006. If this region stays true to form, and are backed by the Baltic states, Wogan's own favourite for 2008, Sweden, might stand a chance.
British Isles
When no-one else is voting for the old UK, Ireland can be relied upon. And we return the
compliment. The UK has earned a mere 91 points in the past five years and the only country to give us a big 12 was Malta (though they admitted it was a protest at bloc voting).
Iberian axis
Spain - one of the big four who, with the UK, France and Germany, always has a place in the final, along with the hosts - can always rely on Andorra and, to some extent, Portugal.
Eastern bloc
Russia, with three top-three places in the past five years, looks on paper to be due a win. The former Communist countries remain loyal through Eurovision, regularly voting for each other. Ukraine, who won in 2004 and came second last year, could be well supported again and Armenia may be the dark horse. Baltic state votes are also often exchanged with the Viking empire.
Balkan bastion
In spite of old enmities, the former Yugoslav republics make sure they share top votes among themselves, making it a power base for the new Eurovision. 2008 hosts Serbia won last year, helped by support from Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia and Slovenia.
Greece is the word
The Greeks won in 2005 and can always rely on Cyprus and Albania for some big points. They often get in on the Balkan action, too.
|
|
